I lost a bet on the election. Here's why.
The election was less about the messenger, more about the message.
I lost a bet on the election. I owe a friend a burrito. I didn’t vote for either presidential candidate but put my money on Kamala Harris for a close victory. Here’s why I lost the wager and she lost the race.
Harris was a decent candidate. She deserves credit for picking up the baton after it was clear President Joe Biden wouldn’t get across the finish line. The race, however, was more uphill than it appeared and the clock was already running. She had to distance herself from Biden’s unpopular record and her own past positions. How would her administration differ from his? She couldn’t say.
Her own past public policy statements also weighed her down. They resonated with progressives but not the average voter. As a liberal Democrat, Harris should not have chosen a running mate even more to the left. A moderate Democrat would have helped the ticket.
Being a female candidate was both an advantage and a disadvantage. A lot of us would like to see a woman in that role. The disadvantage is that women have to seem both tough and gracious. It’s a knife’s edge balancing act. One can’t be seen as too soft or too abrasive. Harris performed far better than Hilary Clinton or Sarah Palin in this regard.
Trump’s running mate, by contrast, neither added nor detracted from his campaign. Even though it seemed like Trump’s own behavior would detract, it did not. Ardent Trump supporters like his style. He’s their bully against the elites who look down their noses. The Trump voters I know, however, voted for him but don’t like him. They were voting against the policies of the left. They believed that Trump would deliver. So far, he has. He won handily.
They have reason to believe he will deliver on the economy and immigration—the top issues identified in exit polls—and push back against leftist overreach. Economically, a lot of us were better off during his tenure. The irony is that Trump, Biden, and Congress share responsibility for inflation because they collectively borrowed trillions of dollars and dumped the currency into the economy even though economists warned inflation would ensue. The problem for Biden is that it ensued during his time in office.
Second to economic concerns, many Americans including Democrats are concerned about immigration and believe the Biden Administration allowed too many people in through the southern border over the past four years. Americans grew frustrated as cities reduced services to citizens to provide humanitarian aid to immigrants. Most Americans do not want to see 20 million illegal immigrants deported on Day 1; they just want a more measured approach.
The influx of immigrants also contributed to the feeling that Democrats do not care about lawlessness. This perception was amplified when campus agitators vandalized campuses and shouted anti-Semitic slurs this summer. It no doubt reminded many voters of 2020 when rioters torched cities, damaged public buildings, and looted stores. Voters are also frustrated with the deterioration of cities. Vagrant camps filled with open drug use and heaps of garbage, panhandlers on medians, and guys with squeegees in intersections made an effective campaign ad for Trump.
This election, social issues actually helped Republicans. Democrats had overreached on gender and abortion. Most Americans don’t care if a man wants to live as a woman or a woman as a man. But when schools tell troubled teens they can change their gender and hide it from their parents, when girls and women are robbed of sports victories by biological men, when men enter women’s bathrooms and women are shamed for complaining, we care.
As for abortion, most Americans are in the middle on this issue. They would rather not talk about it. Trump downplayed the issue. Harris ran on it. I don’t think it helped her.
As a former Democrat, I feel that prolife women are utterly unwelcome in that party. Could I have voted for a prolife Democrat like former governors John Bel Edwards and Bill Ritter against Trump? Yes. I would have crossed party lines, voted for them, and volunteered for the campaign. Would I have been open to voting for a “safe, legal, and rare” moderate Democrat like Bill Clinton over Trump? I would have considered it. Could I vote for someone who supports aborting a baby at any gestational age and makes it a cornerstone in her campaign? No.
Finally for friends who are upset about the election, know I understand. I share your concerns about Trump’s character. When I think about those who lied about the 2020 election and their silent enablers assuming cabinet positions and congressional committee leadership, I feel more cynical than I can say. The old saying is wrong. Liars do prosper.
I’d like to think I’ve hit peak cynicism but I have a hunch I have miles yet to go. And yet I have no use for apocalyptic predictions. The nation has survived contentious elections, wars, depressions, and other upheavals. Politics isn’t everything. We will be fine. Wait and see. I’ll bet a burrito on it.